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Thread: A Mug's Game? An experiment

  1. #1

    A Mug's Game? An experiment

    i've decided to set myself a little experiment across next season to put to the test my general assumption that, when gambling, i generally break even over the course of a season with bigger wins making up for the numerous losses.

    to that extent, i will be crediting a betting account with one hundred of my hard earned Earth pounds and limiting myself to bets no greater than 2 per week. this way, if i lose every single bet the experiment will still last one year.

    where possible i will try to place bets totalling 2 every week but, where i do not manage it one week for whatever reason, i will rollover the funds into next week for a 4 cap. all my bets and losses/wins will be tracked here for full transparency.

    the experiment is a little unusual in that i generally bet different amounts and a mixture of dead certs, outsider punts and accumulators which obviously affects wins/losses so having a strict cap will alter my betting patterns somewhat but the principle is the same.

    at the end of the 1 year experiment, which i'll make as 11 July - the day after the Euro 2016 Final, i will evaluate my performance in terms of WINS, LOSSES and percentages.

    anyone else who has a spare bit of cash is welcome to join me on this experiment (perhaps using fractions of this amount if needed - 50 and 1 cap for example.) you might win a few quid, you might lose but you'll definitely have a bit of fun throughout the season ,

    This experiment will commence on the opening weekend of the Premier League season.

    of course, all tips gratefully received throughout the season. ,

  2. #2

    Re: A Mug's Game? An experiment

    Not on your life am i starting that gambling lark!
    The only time i gambled was in vegas with 400 of someone else quid!
    there are thing My good self steer well clear of because i don't know what effect it will have on me Drink ,Drugs, Smoking and Gambling!
    sorry mate but i will saunter over here when they get the "threads you have posted on option" up from time to time to see how quick you become bankrupt .

  3. #3

    Re: A Mug's Game? An experiment

    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Hill
    This experiment will commence on the opening weekend of the Premier League season.

    of course, all tips gratefully received throughout the season. ,
    Stick close to my predictions and you cant go far wrong!.

  4. #4

    Re: A Mug's Game? An experiment

    I was a regular weekend punter in the past, really used to enjoy it but I find I don't get the same buzz from it these days so I rarely bet. I logged my profits and losses one year, not so much as an "experiment" more to analyse where I had the most success. I recall on a year's outlay of around 1200 I made a loss of around 200, which I didn't really mind as I consider a punt as a one of life's pleasures, and we have all paid a lot more than 200 for various things over a year in the pursuit of pleasure.

    To be honest I think every regular punter should keep a track of how much they make or lose in the course of the year, the average gambler will remember the days when they had a "decent win" and forget the multitude of days they made nothing or (more likely) made a loss. The bookies find it so easy to fleece the average Joe they seem to be the only growth "retail" outlet on the high streets these days.

    Having said all that, I've been thinking of turning my predictive skills in football results into small wagers, so I'll join you but my plan is slightly different. I'm betting on PL scores only for the duration of the season - a permed 1 treble on three matches each week (3 games, 2 guesses at the correct score for each game, one of which will be a score I use in the Forum's prediction game) which will cost me 8 a go. As correct scores tend to pay out odds at least around the 4/1 or 5/1 mark, I should make a decent profit if I can get two winning bets in the season. Total cost 304 if I don't get a win (I piss away more on the lottery, so it's a 'low risk' investment), we can compare accounts at the end of the experiment. May the best man win i.e. me
    He's magic you kno-oow, Mauricio Poch-ett-ino!

  5. #5

    Re: A Mug's Game? An experiment

    Quote Originally Posted by specnur
    i will saunter over here when they get the "threads you have posted on option" up from time to time to see how quick you become bankrupt .


    while i don't claim to be a rival to Bill Gates in the wealth stakes i reckon my finances can forego a 100 loss over the course of a year.

  6. #6

    Re: A Mug's Game? An experiment

    Quote Originally Posted by Pickleman1967

    Having said all that, I've been thinking of turning my predictive skills in football results into small wagers, so I'll join you but my plan is slightly different. I'm betting on PL scores only for the duration of the season - a permed 1 treble on three matches each week (3 games, 2 guesses at the correct score for each game, one of which will be a score I use in the Forum's prediction game) which will cost me 8 a go. As correct scores tend to pay out odds at least around the 4/1 or 5/1 mark, I should make a decent profit if I can get two winning bets in the season. Total cost 304 if I don't get a win (I piss away more on the lottery, so it's a 'low risk' investment), we can compare accounts at the end of the experiment. May the best man win i.e. me


    nice one, that's the spirit.

    my bets will likely be a mix of singles, doubles, trebles and accumulators so i might dable in a few 'correct score trebles' at lower stake obviously. provided i don't exceed 2 a week the experiment will run the full year.

    if i started going bigger i'd obviously skew the results.

    will be interesting to see how we fare one way or the other anyway.

  7. #7

    Re: A Mug's Game? An experiment

    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by specnur
    i will saunter over here when they get the "threads you have posted on option" up from time to time to see how quick you become bankrupt .


    while i don't claim to be a rival to Bill Gates in the wealth stakes i reckon my finances can forego a 100 loss over the course of a year.
    That's what you will have us believe pal! But shelling out on the prime piece of apple equipment probably put you 3 tube fares from cup noodle dinners for a year!

  8. #8

    Re: A Mug's Game? An experiment

    Quote Originally Posted by specnur
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by specnur
    i will saunter over here when they get the "threads you have posted on option" up from time to time to see how quick you become bankrupt .


    while i don't claim to be a rival to Bill Gates in the wealth stakes i reckon my finances can forego a 100 loss over the course of a year.
    That's what you will have us believe pal! But shelling out on the prime piece of apple equipment probably put you 3 tube fares from cup noodle dinners for a year!

  9. #9

    Re: A Mug's Game? An experiment

    "It's a mugs game. The bookies always win". This is what I keep hearing. If this was so then you should do one thing: become a bookmaker yourself. Via BETFAIR. Talking of Betfair, have you thought about doing the experiment with them? Minimum 2 bet every time, which is the right amount you should be gambling initially.

    My first bet would be Donald Trump to be President which is now 33/1. Was 66/1 a week ago. Know the bookies wouldn't have him as that is he had a chance, so you got to do a bit of work here. He needs to be the Republican nominee despite Jeb Bush being favourite at about 7/2 for the Presidency. If you back both and either wins the nomination then you got at least 7/2 minus the bet lost on Trump going on a 2 horse race between your bet and then Clinton for the Democrats. Do some maths and you win even before the result is announced by backing the horse you haven't backed.

    Trump won't be standing independently if he doesn't get the nomination though.

  10. #10

    Re: A Mug's Game? An experiment

    Almost forgot this.

    1 on WHU to beat arsenal
    1 treble on Soton, Liverpool and Man City

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